It’s probably a little early in Getting To Greenlight’s lifecycle to put this out there, but I’m working on a post on this topic and I’m curious whether this group has a take.
The only right answer is “It depends,” obviously, but still: If you had to pick one approach over the other, what what you choose?
Avoiding misses is more important because it allows you to continue along producing more movies until one is a breakout success. One big miss can shut you down permanently or get you fired if you are the studio executive who was ultimately responsible.
In basketball? Avoiding misses. One bad contract ruins a team's future.
In movies? Picking hits. The top dev execs of the last few decades in filmmaking did the latter. That's the Feige/Frank G Wells/Lasseter playbook. They had the hits. Of course, this is from the studio side. My working theory is that most films (9 of 10) are flops anyways. But if you're hit rate--especially blockbuster rate--is 7 out of 10, you'll out produce everyone.
Producers and Talent could have different incentives, though arguably one big hit makes a career.
What's more important: Picking Hits, or Avoiding Misses?
Avoiding misses is more important because it allows you to continue along producing more movies until one is a breakout success. One big miss can shut you down permanently or get you fired if you are the studio executive who was ultimately responsible.
In basketball? Avoiding misses. One bad contract ruins a team's future.
In movies? Picking hits. The top dev execs of the last few decades in filmmaking did the latter. That's the Feige/Frank G Wells/Lasseter playbook. They had the hits. Of course, this is from the studio side. My working theory is that most films (9 of 10) are flops anyways. But if you're hit rate--especially blockbuster rate--is 7 out of 10, you'll out produce everyone.
Producers and Talent could have different incentives, though arguably one big hit makes a career.